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The following is a Mock Draft by Business of Sports Network staff member, Nick Kappel While I expect several trades to complicate the first round on draft day, it is impossible for me to predict them in a mock draft. These picks are based mainly on team need and player rankings. If enough change happens in the next week, I’ll release a 2.0 version. Comments are welcome. Enjoy!
1. Miami Dolphins - Chris Long – DE – Virginia
2007 Record: 1-15
Key Additions: G Justin Smiley, DT Randy Starks, WR Ernest Wilford
Key Losses: WR Marty Booker, LB Zach Thomas
It’s no secret that new VP of football operations Bill Parcells is a defensive minded guy. In Dallas, he spent each of his four 1st round picks on a defensive player. This off-season in Miami, the Big Tuna has added G Justin Smiley and DT Randy Starks to improve the lines. Chris Long will team up with Jason Taylor to give the Dolphins a dominant defensive pass rush. The offensive line class is very deep this year, so they can address that need later in the draft.
2. St. Louis Rams – Jake Long – OT – Michigan
2007 Record: 3-13
Key Additions: G Jacob Bell, K Josh Brown, WR Reche Caldwell
Key Losses: WR Isaac Bruce, K Jeff Wilkins
With Orlando Pace’s status in question heading into the season, Jake Long is a no doubter for the Rams at No. 2. Long is this year’s Joe Thomas, and should be a dominant force on the Rams’ line for the next decade. In 2007, Rams quarterbacks were sacked 48 times, sixth worse in the league. Their rushing game struggled as well, as the team averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, ranking 22nd in that category. The Rams need to protect Marc Bulger to make their high-powered offense go. Whether or not the aging Pace comes back for his 12th season, the Rams need a guy like Jake Long to anchor their offensive line.
3. Atlanta Falcons – Glenn Dorsey – DT – LSU
2007 Record: 4-12
Key Additions: RB Michael Turner, K Jason Elam
Key Losses: RB Warrick Dunn, CB DeAngelo Hall, TE Alge Crumpler, DT Rod Coleman
The Falcons are clearly in rebuilding mode one season after their team leader Michael Vick was sent to prison, and their head coach Bobby Petrino quit on the team after 13 games. In attempt to clean house this off-season, the Falcons released Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler and Rod Coleman, while trading disgruntled cornerback DeAngelo Hall. New team GM Thomas Dimitroff should begin the rebuilding process on the offensive and defensive lines, which makes Glenn Dorsey, who is arguably the draft’s top prospect, a great pick at No. 3. Dorsey will make an immediate impact on a defense that forced the third fewest sacks and allowed 127 rushing yards per game last season. An argument could be made for Matt Ryan with this pick, as the Falcons have a hole to fill at QB. However, Atlanta should be able to address that need with one of their three 2nd round picks.
4. Oakland Raiders – Sedrick Ellis – DT – USC
2007 Record: 4-12
Key Additions: CB DeAngelo Hall, WR Javon Walker, FS Gibril Wilson
Key Losses: DT Warren Sapp, WR Jerry Porter
Contrary to popular belief, the Raiders are stacked in the backfield. Justin Fargas, Dominic Rhodes and LaMont Jordan all contributed to Oakland’s 130.4 rushing yards per game in 2007, which ranked sixth best in the league. Add that to a potentially healthy Michael Bush, and the Raiders have an extremely versatile group of running backs. Head Coach Lane Kiffin shared those thoughts at the NFL Combine, saying his 31st ranked rush defense could use a defensive tackle in the form of Southern Cal’s Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey from LSU. The wild card in this situation is Al Davis. The disputes between him and Kiffin have been well publicized, and the final decision is Al’s. The popular pick among mock drafts at this spot is Darren McFadden, but if Davis has any sense of what’s good for his team, he should take his coach’s advice and go with Ellis.
5. Kansas City Chiefs – Branden Albert – G – Virginia
2007 Record: 4-12
Key Additions: LB Demorrio Williams, WR Devard Darling
Key Losses: CB Ty Law, C Casey Wiegmann, WR Eddie Kennison
Albert’s stock has skyrocketed recently, although I’ll admit this could be a reach for my Kansas City Chiefs with the No. 5 pick. Matt Ryan is the other option here, but the Chiefs shouldn’t give up on Brodie Croyle without a stable offensive line in front of him for an entire season. The Chiefs allowed the most sacks in the NFL last season, (55) and also finished last in rushing yards per game, averaging just 78.0. Offensive line is a glaring need for Kansas City, but they won’t be lucky enough to land their first choice, Jake Long with this pick. Instead, Branden Albert, who projects to play guard or tackle in the NFL, will fit in nicely on the right side of Kansas City’s offensive line.
6. New York Jets – Darren McFadden – RB – Arkansas
2007 Record: 4-12
Key Additions: G Alan Faneca, LB Calvin Pace, T/G Damien Woody
Key Losses: LB Jonathan Vilma, FS Erik Coleman
The Jets would be ecstatic if McFadden fell to them at the No. 6 pick, as their rushing offense suffered mightily last season. The team averaged 106.3 yards per on the ground last season, and gained just 3.8 yards per carry, placing them in the bottom half of the league in each category. They finished 30th in the NFL with six rushing touchdowns. The off-season acquisitions of offensive linemen Alan Faneca and Damien Woody should help stabilize the Jets’ line and would give McFadden plenty of room to run. Wide receiver is another team need, but New York will struggle to find a prospect at that position worth the No. 6 pick. Many have speculated that the Jets will go with Ohio State’s DE Vernon Gholston here, but I believe McFadden will be too tough for them to pass up.
7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco) – Vernon Gholston – DE – Ohio State
2007 Record: 16-0
Key Additions: S Tank Williams
Key Losses: LB Rosevelt Colvin, CB Randall Gay, CB Asante Samuel, WR Donte Stallworth
With the pick the NFL should have taken away as punishment for “spygateâ€, the Patriots should be looking to fill their need at cornerback following the loss of Randall Gay and Asante Samuel to free agency. Leodis McKelvin is an option, but the Patriots love Vernon Gholston’s size, strength and versatility. If he slips, expect New England to take him. You’ll hear the argument for an offensive lineman with this pick, as the Giants pass rush was one of the keys to New York’s Super Bowl XLII victory. However, Tom Brady was sacked just 21 times during the regular season last year. The Giants simply overpowered New England’s offensive line; they did not expose a weakness.
 
8. Baltimore Ravens – Matt Ryan – QB – Boston College
2007 Record: 5-11
Key Additions: LB Brendon Ayanbadejo, CB Frank Walker
Key Losses: RB Mike Anderson, WR Devard Darling
The Ravens have several different needs heading into the draft. With aging corners Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle missing time last year due to injuries, Baltimore should look to fill that void. If 12-year veteran Jonathan Ogden retires, as Baltimore expects, they will have a huge hole to fill on the offensive line as well. Their biggest need, however, is at quarterback. Kyle Boller is clearly not the answer, and the 35-year-old Steve McNair is nearing the end of his career. Matt Ryan would be a great fit for the Baltimore offense, a game manager who doesn’t make mistakes. The Ravens will certainly need to address other areas of need in the draft, but this is their chance to finally add a consistent quarterback to lead their team.
9. Cincinnati Bengals – Ryan Clady – OT – Boise State
2007 Record: 7-9
Key Additions: DE Antwan Odom, TE Ben Utecht
Key Losses: DE Justin Smith, S Madieu Williams, WR Chris Henry
Everyone seems to forget that the Bengals had major issues on the offensive line last season. Starting tackles Levi Jones and Willie Anderson were lost to injury, and Cincinnati rushed for just 97.2 yards per (22nd in the league) at a 3.7 clip last season. With Anderson and Jones’ status still up in the air, Clady could develop into a high quality starter, and help open up the running game again for Rudi Johnson. Defensive tackles Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis wont fall to Cincinnati, making Clady the logical choice.
10. New Orleans Saints – Keith Rivers – LB – USC
2007 Record: 7-9
Key Additions: CB Randall Gay, LB Jonathan Vilma
Key Losses: C Jeff Faine
Despite the Saints’ off-season acquisitions of Randall Gay and Jonathan Vilma, their 26th ranked defense from 2007 needs more work. Rivers’ size, (6-4, 241) smarts, and instincts should provide him with enough tools to have a solid career as a linebacker in the NFL. Troy’s cornerback Leodis McKelvin is also an option, as the Saints could use some help in the secondary. However, Rivers is the higher rated player, expect New Orleans to take him.
11. Buffalo Bills – Malcolm Kelly – WR - Oklahoma
2007 Record: 7-9
Key Additions: LB Kawika Mitchell, DT Marcus Stroud, DT Spencer Johnson
Key Losses: CB Jason Webster, WR Peerless Price
While a cornerback would help Buffalo’s 29th ranked pass defense from last year, their 30th ranked pass offense needs a boost as well. The Bills desperately want to add a sizeable receiver with this pick, making Kelly the logical choice. Kelly’s slow 40-times may have dropped his stock, but the Bills have plenty of speed in Lee Evans. The 6-4, 227 receiver would give Buffalo a big red-zone target for quarterback Trent Edwards.
12. Denver Broncos – Jeff Otah – OT - Pittsburgh
2007 Record: 7-9
Key Additions: LB Boss Bailey, C Casey Wiegmann, S Marlon McCree
Key Losses: K Jason Elam, LB Ian Gold, OT Matt Lepsis, WR Javon Walker
The Broncos defense allowed 142.6 rushing yards per game last season, which ranked 30th in the league. A defensive tackle would be ideal for Denver, but Kentwan Balmer would be too much of a reach with the 12th pick. The Broncos could also use a linebacker or safety, but no player at those positions would make sense here. A trade could be in order, but if I had to pick I’d say Denver goes with Pitt’s OT Jeff Otah. The 6-6, 322 mauler is the best run blocker in this year’s draft class.
13. Carolina Panthers – Chris Williams – OT – Vanderbilt
2007 Record: 7-9
Key Additions: WR D.J. Hackett, WR Mushin Muhammad, LB Landon Johnson, RB LaBrandon Toefield
Key Losses: RB DeShaun Foster, DT Kris Jenkins, LB Dan Morgan
The right side of Carolina’s offensive line needs help, and Williams would be a solid fit. At 6-6, 315 pounds, Williams has a massive frame and could solidify the Panthers’ offensive line. A running back is a possibility here, but I believe DeAngelo Williams, who averaged 5.0 yards per carry last season, will get at least one more season to prove his worth as Carolina’s 1st round pick in 2006. Defensive tackle is another need for the Panthers, although no players at that position who will be available are worth the 13th pick.
14. Chicago Bears – Rashard Mendenhall – RB – Illinois
2007 Record: 7-9
Key Additions: WR Marty Booker, WR Brandon Lloyd
Key Losses: WR Bernard Berrian, WR Mushin Muhammad
While the Bears have a few glaring holes on the offensive line, my gut tells me Chicago will go with Rashard Mendenhall with the No. 14 pick. Chicago’s offensive coordinator Ron Turner recruited Mendenhall back in his days at Illinois and absolutely loves the kid. Chicago’s rushing attack ranked 30th in the league last year, averaging just 83.1 yards per game. 2008 will be Cedric Benson’s fourth season in the NFL, and he has yet to prove his worth as the No. 4 pick in the 2005 draft.
15. Detroit Lions – Derrick Harvey – DE – Florida
2007 Record: 7-9
Key Additions: CB Leigh Bodden, CB Brian Kelly, DT Chuck Darby
Key Losses: LB Boss Bailey, RB T.J. Duckett, RB Kevin Jones, DT Shaun Rogers, T/G Damien Woody
Detroit would have loved to see Mendenhall fall to them at No. 15, but running back is a need they can address in the second or third round. Offensive line is another need, as Jon Kitna was sacked 51 times last season, more than any other quarterback in the league. However, with the top five offensive linemen off the board, the Lions will select Derrick Harvey. The former Florida standout possesses excellent first step quickness on the end, and would be a solid addition for Detroit’s front four.
16. Arizona Cardinals – Leodis McKelvin – CB - Troy
2007 Record: 8-8
Key Additions: LB Clark Haggans, DE Travis LaBoy
Key Losses: LB Calvin Pace, S Terrence Holt
The Cardinals have multiple needs to address in this draft, most notably at cornerback, offensive line, running back and defensive end. Luckily, the offensive line and running back classes are deep this year, so Arizona can fill those holes later and land Leodis McKelvin with the No. 16 pick. The Troy standout will fill the void at cornerback left by Antrel Rolle’s move to free safety. His playmaking skills and ability to contribute on special teams should help improve Arizona’s 28th ranked pass defense from last season.
17. Minnesota Vikings – Phillip Merling – DE - Clemson
2007 Record: 8-8
Key Additions: WR Bernard Berrian, S Michael Boulware, DL Ellis Wyms, S Madieu Williams
Key Losses: DT Spencer Johnson, FB Tony Richardson, S Tank Williams
Merling’s stock has dropped recently as teams have become more aware of his sports hernia injury. However, when healthy, has the potential to be a very solid defensive end. He has some experience at defensive tackle, and can play in coverage as well, making him a versatile defender. The Vikings also have a need in their secondary and at quarterback, as I’m not sold on Tarvaris Jackson. However, Merling is a solid selection for a team on the rise with the No. 17 pick.
18. Houston Texans – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie – CB – Tennessee State
2007 Record: 8-8
Key Additions: RB Chris Brown, CB Jacques Reeves,
Key Losses: LB/S Michael Boulware, LB Danny Clark, CB Von Hutchins
Houston would like to add an offensive lineman in the first round, but no players available at that position would warrant the No. 18 pick. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the cousin of Chargers’ CB Antonio Cromartie, possesses excellent speed and playmaking ability. His presence will help improve the Texans’ 25th ranked pass defense from last year. CB Dunta Robinson is not expected back from reconstructive knee surgery until mid-season, making Rodgers-Cromartie the easy choice.
19. Philadelphia Eagles – Kenny Phillips – S - Miami
2007 Record: 8-8
Key Additions: CB Asante Samuel, DE Chris Clemons
Key Losses: DE Javon Kearse, LB Takeo Spikes
It seems to me that Philly could use some help at linebacker with this pick, perhaps in the form of Tennessee’s Jerod Mayo. However, sources tell me the Eagles will instead reach for Miami’s Kenny Phillips, the only safety worthy of a first round selection. Phillips is a leader on the field and possesses great athleticism. However, his undisciplined approach and durability concerns may cause some raised eyebrows around the league if Philadelphia decides to fill their biggest need at safety with the No. 19 pick.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Devin Thomas – WR – Michigan State
2007 Record: 9-7
Key Additions: RB Warrick Dunn, C Jeff Faine, CB Eugene Wilson
Key Losses: FB Mike Alstott, CB Brian Kelly
Jon Gruden needs more playmakers on offense, and Michigan State’s Devin Thomas fits the bill. Thomas possesses good size, (6-1, 216) and excellent hands. He also has the ability to contribute on special teams. North Carolina’s DT Kentwan Balmer is also an option for the Buccaneers here. However, I think they will look to improve their 18th ranked offense opposed to their 2nd ranked defense from a season ago.
21. Washington Redskins – Limas Sweed – WR – Texas
2007 Record: 9-7
Key Additions: WR/KR Jerome Mathis
Key Losses: WR Reche Caldwell, WR Brandon Lloyd
The Redskins, like the Buccaneers, desperately need to add a playmaker in the passing game. Devin Thomas would have been a great fit, but new head coach Jim Zorn will be thrilled to land Sweed with the 21st pick of the draft. At 6-3, 215, Sweed provides good size at the wide receiver position, something Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El (who both stand at 5-10) lack. The former Texas Longhorn is considered by many to be the best receiver in this year’s draft class. However, a wrist injury that has bothered him since the beginning of last season has caused his stock to drop. The ‘Skins could take the chance on him anyway.
22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) – Felix Jones – RB – Arkansas
2007 Record: 13-3
Key Additions: LB Zach Thomas
Key Losses: RB Julius Jones, CB Jacques Reeves
To complete the Brady Quinn trade, Dallas will fill the void left by Julius Jones in the backfield, and select Felix Jones. The 5-10, 207 lb. running back will give the Cowboys the perfect power/speed combo alongside Marion Barber. Jones isn’t an every down back, but given his rare speed, he should flourish if Dallas uses him right. The Boys also could use a cornerback, but with Aqib Talib, Brandon Flowers and Antoine Cason still on the board, they should be able to land one with the 28th pick.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Gosder Cherilus – OT – Boston College
2007 Record: 10-6
Key Additions: C Justin Hartwig, RB Mewelde Moore
Key Losses: G Alan Faneca, CB/KR Allen Rossum, LB Clark Haggans
Pittsburgh has a huge hole on the offensive line following Alan Faneca’s departure. The fact that Ben Roethlisberger was sacked 47 times last year with Faneca, is even more reason to draft a big man up front to protect the quarterback. Unfortunately, no guards outside of Branden Albert are expected to be drafted in the first round. While Cherilus is a tackle, not a guard, the Steelers will find a spot for him. North Carolina’s DT Kentwan Balmer is also an option here, as Pittsburgh’s defensive line is aging, but offensive line is the greater need. In fact, don’t be surprised if the Steelers draft two or three offensive lineman in the draft.
24. Tennessee Titans – Jerod Mayo – LB – Tennessee
2007 Record: 10-6
Key Additions: TE Alge Crumpler, DE Jevon Kearse, G Jake Scott
Key Losses: G Jacob Bell, RB Chris Brown, DE Travis LaBoy, DE Antwan Odom
The Titans biggest need is at wide receiver, but with Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas and Limas Sweed off the board, Tennessee could go with the best available player in Jerod Mayo. Mayo possesses a nice combo of size, (6-1, 242) speed and athleticism. He is still somewhat of a project, but has the potential to be a very solid starter in the NFL. North Carolina’s DT Kentwan Balmer is also a possibility here, but the Titans would be fortunate to have Mayo slip this far.
25. Seattle Seahawks – Dustin Keller – TE – Purdue
2007 Record: 10-6
Key Additions: RB T.J. Duckett, RB Julius Jones, G Mike Wahle
Key Losses: WR D.J. Hackett, DL Ellis Wyms, K Josh Brown
The Seahawks have a few holes to fill in their passing game following the losses of WR D.J. Hackett and TE Marcus Pollard to free agency, and an injury that will cause WR Deion Branch to miss half the season. Cal’s DeSean Jackson is an option, but I think Seattle will opt to go with Purdue’s Dustin Keller at tight end with the No. 25 pick. Keller possesses good athleticism for a tight end and can line up as a wide receiver, making him a versatile weapon on offense.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars – Calais Campbell – DE – Miami
2007 Record: 11-5
Key Additions: CB Drayton Florence, WR Jerry Porter, WR Troy Williamson
Key Losses: CB Aaron Glenn, DT Marcus Stroud, RB LaBrandon Toefield, WR Ernest Wilford
The Jaguars appear to have a need on the defensive line. With Derrick Harvey and Phillip Merling long gone, Jacksonville could reach for the next best defensive end in the draft, Calais Campbell. The Miami product has a massive build, standing 6-7, weighing 290 pounds. While he doesn’t possess elite pass rushing speed, he has a solid overall game.
27. San Diego Chargers – Jonathan Stewart – RB – Oregon
2007 Record: 11-5
Key Additions: LB Derek Smith
Key Losses: CB Drayton Florence, RB Michael Turner, T Shane Olivea, FB Lorenzo Neal
When your starting running back is LaDanian Tomlinson, you normally wouldn’t expect to be using your first round pick on another ball carrier. However, following Michael Turner’s departure, and L.T.’s injury late last season, the Chargers will likely be looking at Stewart with the 27th pick. San Diego doesn’t have many holes to fill, making this more of a luxury pick than anything. Stewart is very quick and shifty, and when paired with Darren Sproles, would give the Chargers the best return duo in the league. North Carolina’s Kentwan Balmer is an option here, as NT Jamal Williams is heading into his 11th season in the league and will soon be 32. However, despite his drop in stock over his injury history, Stewart will be able to make a more immediate impact on a team that could content for the AFC Championship in 2008.
28. Dallas Cowboys – Aqib Talib – CB – Kansas
2007 Record: 13-3
Key Additions: LB Zach Thomas
Key Losses: RB Julius Jones, CB Jacques Reeves
This would be a dream scenario for the Cowboys if they were able to land Talib at No. 28 after snatching Felix Jones with the 22nd pick. Aqib Talib has good size for a corner at 6-0, 202. He is very durable and possesses great athleticism, with the ability to play CB, WR and KR. Last season at Kansas, he caught eight passes for 182 yards and four touchdowns on offense, and intercepted five passes, returning two for touchdowns on defense. Last week, news broke that Talib admitted to failing three drug tests while at Kansas. This has caused his stock to drop, but Jerry Jones has never been one to shy away from character issues. If he can stay out of trouble, he should be a great fit for Cowboys.
29. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis) – Kentwan Balmer – DT – North Carolina
2007 Record: 5-11
Key Additions: WR Isaac Bruce, DE Justin Smith, WR Bryant Johnson
Key Losses: T Kwame Harris, WR Darrell Jackson, G Justin Smiley, DT Bryant Young
Offensive line is where San Francisco needs help the most. They lost G Justin Smiley and T Kwame Harris to free agency, and G Larry Allen is 36 years old. Unfortunately, all six offensive linemen that were 1st round worthy are off the board, which will leave the 49ers with Kentwan Balmer. At 6-4, 208 pounds, Balmer can be dominant when he wants to be. He can play DE, DT or NT. However, durability and laziness have caused problems for him in the past, leaving some to believe he is a one year wonder. The 49ers could also go with the undersized WR DeSean Jackson from Cal.
30. Green Bay Packers – Mike Jenkins – CB – South Florida
2007 Record: 13-3
Key Additions: LB Brandon Chillar
Key Losses: QB Brett Favre, DT Corey Williams, TE Bubba Franks
The Packers would be happy to see any of the top four corners fall to them at No. 30, especially Jenkins. At 5-10, 197, he is built well for a corner. He has some experience at safety, and the ability to play special teams as well. Jenkins does have some character issues, but based on Green Bay’s needs, no other player on the board makes sense for them. With Al Harris and Charles Woodson now into their thirties, the Packers should be looking for a corner with this pick. If Jenkins is there, he could be their man.
New England Patriots – Pick Forfeited
31. New York Giants – James Hardy – WR - Indiana
2007 Rosters: 10-6
Key Additions: LB Danny Clark, S Sammy Knight
Key Losses: FS Gibril Wilson, LB Kawika Mitchell
The Giants should be looking to surround Eli Manning with more playmakers in the passing game. California’s WR DeSean Jackson is an option, but lacks in size, an asset the Giants seemingly look for in receivers. The 6-5, 217 James Hardy would be the better fit. He doesn’t have blazing speed, but is tough and willing to go over the middle. Hardy would fit nicely into New York’s offense opposite Plaxico Burress, once the 34-year-old Amani Toomer finally decides to hang ‘em up. Safety is a greater need for the defending Super Bowl champs, but since Philly reached for Kenny Phillips with the 19th pick, the Giants can wait until the second or third round to scoop up Arkansas State’s S Tyrell Johnson. Penn State’s LB Dan Conner is still on the board as well, but if Hardy is there, the Giants should select him.
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